I have to admit, I was one of those people that gave John Boehner the benefit of the doubt after the budget negotiations in early April. At the time, it seemed as though Republicans were playing their cards perfectly. With a Republican majority in the House and Democrats controlling the Senate and presidency, Republicans did not have the power to enact a budget unilaterally. House Republicans were forced to play a game of chicken with Democrats. If neither side flinched, Republicans would have had to choose between going along with the liberal status quo and shutting down the government. While the decision is obvious if we are making a last stand for sane fiscal policy or if the outcome of this standoff is the sole determining factor of America’s future, I don’t think we are quite at that point yet. We’re certainly close, but we’re not quite there yet. There will still be a few more chances to rectify America’s finances before we find ourselves in the same boat as Zimbabwe.
It does us little good to win the battle if we lose the war. Who would “win” this sort of showdown would be determined by the shifting whims of voters, particularly those fickle undecided voters. Although the 2010 elections sent a strong message to Washington and produced a lot of positive changes, 2012 was always the year that we were going to get a crack at fundamentally shaking things up. The 2012 election will give Republicans a chance to take the White House and a very good chance to take back the Senate. In 2012 and 2014 we will finally have the opportunity to take back the big gains that Democrats made in wave elections in 2006 and 2008. It doesn’t do us any good to balance the budget in 2011 if we lose the election in 2012 and return to reckless spending.
While stalwart conservatives might cheer a government shutdown, fickle independents will always take into consideration the circumstances. Those fickle voters will particularly consider which side is more “reasonable” in any stalemate. While $61 billion might be chump change for the government, it “seems” like a big number to your average voter. If Democrats offered up a compromise and Republicans held fast, most of those fickle independents would blame any government shutdown on Republicans. Under the circumstances, Republicans were stuck between a rock and a hard place. They could have either appeased the base and alienated other voters, or they would have to reach some sort of compromise and angered the base.
The one-week and two-week continuing resolutions seemed like a strategic stroke of genius. Instead of giving Democrats the option of choosing between $61 billion in cuts and a government shutdown, Democrats would have to choose between a few measly billion and a shutdown. Although the cuts were proportional to the $61 billion when you consider the duration of the continuing resolution, Democrats were forced to choose between a death of a thousand cuts and government shutdown. The fact that this ploy worked shows how effective it was. The Democrats couldn’t lay claim to being the most reasonable if they were willing to shut down the government over a few billion dollars.
When it was announced that John Boehner had reached a compromise with Democrats for $38 billion, I was a little disappointed that Republicans had given up the leverage they had gained by chipping away at Democrats with one-week continuing resolutions. However, I was happy with the compromise. The recurring doomsday countdowns for the 2011 budget were distracting us from the 2012 budget in which we would get a chance to reform some of the major drivers of the budget deficit such as entitlements. Although Republicans had promised us $100 billion in cuts in their first year, that year was always the 2012 budget year for me. Since Democrats didn’t pass a 2011 budget when they had the chance (and the majorities in Congress), there wasn’t much room for painless cuts in the 2011 budget after the continuing resolution passed by Democrats expired. Even if Republicans had cut every penny of spending for the rest of 2011, federal spending is so out-of-control that the budget still wouldn’t be balanced. The pro-rated $61 billion in cuts are a good start for 2011 in my opinion.
Although the proposed $38 billion cuts fell short of even the pro-rated Republican promises, Republicans would get a second chance to get the full $61 billion in cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Up until this point in time it seemed as though the Republican leadership had executed the perfect plan to get the pro-rated $61 billion in promised cuts for the first year, in spite of not having a chance to pass a budget for the full year. They had shown independent voters that they were willing to make compromises while moving the budget closer and closer to the goal posts that conservatives were expecting. To top it all off, Boehner had even forced Democrats to allow an up or down vote on controversial issues such as funding for Obamacare, Planned Parenthood, and NPR. While it would have been nice if Republicans had tied the funding of these liberal causes to any continuing resolution, it would have given Democrats an excuse for shutting down the government. An up or down vote forces Democrats up for re-election in red and purple states to go on the record for these issues. It also forces some of our newly elected Republican senators to go on the record. These are two good reasons for happily bargaining for up or down votes. Even if the votes don’t go our way, we can identify easy targets for the 2012 primaries and general elections.
For those of you that haven’t been paying attention, it sounds like accounting gimmicks were used to get to $38 billion and the real figure for cuts is closer to $300 million. There are also murmurs that the 2011 budget has slightly more spending than the 2010 budget. This is unacceptable. Up until this point, I was willing to give Boehner the benefit of the doubt. He hadn’t delivered on promises that were made, but I was willing to accept that he would ultimately deliver on those promises, even if we were talking about $61 billion in cuts rather than $100 billion. It’s starting to sound like my faith in Boehner was misplaced. I’ll have to take a look at the alleged accounting gimmicks before I decide.
Republicans will get a second chance though. We are quickly approaching the debt ceiling, and the next election is more than a year away. Now is the time for redemption. We can’t throw them out before the next election, so we might as well see what they can do between now and then to turn this country around. The leadership in the Republican Party will have two more opportunities to deliver, and they better deliver big when we reach the debt ceiling or pass a 2012 federal budget. It won’t be long before it is too late to fix our nation’s financial problems.
